NCAA Prognostication

This is an experiment to see which prediction source accumulates the most points using a standard scoring system.

The highest possible score is 1,920 points. Each of the 6 rounds has a max possible score of 320 points.

There are three groups of test subjects:

Predictions generated by automated algorithms:

  • 538
    • 2017: 960
  • LRMCP generated by Poologic
    • 2017: 1140
  • Poologic Calc Original Method
    • 2017: 1090
  • Sagarin generated by Poologic
    • 2017: 1120
  • Vegas Method generated by Poologic
    • 2017: 1410
  • Power Rank predictions by Ed Feng
    • 2017: 940
  • BetLab
    • 2017: 940

Predictions generated by experts:

  • Jay Bilas
    • 2017: 1130
  • Neil Greenberg
    • 2017: 1390
  • Howard Megdal
    • 2017: 660
    • 2018: didn’t release a bracket
  • KenPom rankings
    • 2017: 1080
  • Dick Vitale

Predictions generated randomly:

  • Bracket generated by pure guessing
    • 2017: 650
  • Bracket automatically generated by ESPN
    • 2017: 820
  • Bing Predicts
    • 2017: 600

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