Experiments

NCAA Picks

This is an experiment to see which prediction source accumulates the most points using a standard scoring system.
* The highest possible score is 1,920 points. Each of the 6 rounds has a max possible score of 320 points.

There are three groups of test subjects:
Predictions generated by automated algorithms, predictions generated by experts, and predictions generated by guessing.

Source 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022
538 960 780 960 840
Poologic-LRMCP 1140 1120 930 840
Poologic-LRMCPLog 870
Poologic-Original 1090 1080 960 870
Poologic-Sagarin 1120 1070 940 870
Poologic- Vegas 1410 1080 650 890
Power Rank 940 1110 1250 1030
BetLab 940 780
Jay Bilas 1130 640 730 850
Neil Greenberg 1390 410 880 400
Jay Williams 760
Howard Megdal 660 -
KenPom 1080 1100 1260 890
Dick Vitale - 590 710
Pete Thamel 710
ESPN Auto Generated 650 810 1250 730
Bing Predicts 820 670 720
Public Consensus 770 840
Karnik Spreadsheet - 510 1190 860
Pure Guessing/Jessicca 600 1030 390 1100
3 Point Percentage 1210 940
Seth Greenberg 900
ESPN Bracket Predictor 1100
Chalk 1000
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Method of Making Picks In the Fantasy Movie League

  1. Here is the Pro Box Office calculator spreadsheet.
  2. Go to all of the sites. Copy and paste the forecasts into table.
  3. Go to Fantasy Movie League and get the values for each movie that is available to choose. (Note: see if this scraping can be done by a Python script)
  4. If a movie doesn't have a forecast, look at Box Office Mojo and check on what the dropoff is from week to week for that movie's genre.
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