Pundits have been saying that the GOP is on the brink of demographic collapse since the Obama years. Here’s the most recent example from Cassidy Steele Dale:
Three authors at the Hoover Institution back in 2021 did an overlook of support for each party over time and found that the younger the American generation, the far more Democratic they lean.
My point is that the GOP isn’t behind a demographic 8-ball; they’re behind a demographic boulder. And they’ve known this for at least 15 years. That’s why they’ve been gerrymandering and sabotaging/”cleaning” the voter registration rolls everywhere as fast as they possibly can. And challenging the legitimacy of elections and screaming voter fraud. They’ve been trying to push back a tipping point they absolutely know is coming.
I trust the words of Thomas Frank much more. And his article came out in 2014:
What is the pattern that connects these various obsessions of the progressive hivemind — the generational cycle, demographic advantage, racist robots, and gerrymandering?
The answer: each of them is an excuse for doing nothing. Why bother getting out there and building majorities capable of sweeping the G.O.P. out for good? There’s no need, insist Democrats of the optimistic kind, who believe that the impersonal hand of history will soon deliver the world to their doorstep…
Ruy Teixeira grifted on this idea of an impending domination by the Left for ages until finally decamping for the American Enterprise Institute.
Point is, I don’t believe it for a second. The GOP has shown that they have zero interest in democracy if they’re not the ones winning. The white minority in South Africa held power for decades until F.W. deKlerk decided to be a decent human.
The GOP has zero incentive to be decent because they spent the past 40 years executing a strategy. That strategy has made most local officials Republicans, created a judicial super majority, and taken maximum advantage of our stupid Electoral College. They’ve now been able to get the Supreme Court to say that Presidents have absolute immunity for most crimes. That leaves the door wide open for another January 6. They don’t care about the high minded ideals; they care only about power.
The Dems need to wake up before it’s too late. But they probably won’t.