No more blood left to squeeze
The GOP is now trying to find an extra 5 seats in Texas, because they know they can't win in a fair election. But, they've already made their maps as favorable as possible. I saw a delightful term for what may happen if this new scheme actually moves forward:
The worst-case scenario for Republicans arises from the fact that they are currently unusually unpopular. In special elections, Democrats have overperformed their 2024 margins by 13 points on average. Districts that are drawn to be too close could in fact flip to be won by Democrats. This could lead to as few as 13 Republicans in the Texas delegation. That kind of accidental backfire effect is what my academic collaborator Bernie Grofman has called a dummymander. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it is possible. As the financial saying goes: pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.
On average, simulations based on party-blind principles produce maps that elect 17 Democrats out of 38. But the current map produces only 13 Democratic seats based on 2020 voting patterns, and in real elections in 2024 that is exactly what happened.