This is an experiment to see which prediction source accumulates the most points using a standard scoring system.
- The highest possible score is 1,920 points. Each of the 6 rounds has a max possible score of 320 points.
There are three groups of test subjects:
Predictions generated by automated algorithms, predictions generated by experts, and predictions generated by guessing.
| Source | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538 | 960 | 780 | 960 | 840 | 810 |
| KenPom | 1080 | 1100 | 1260 | 890 | 540 |
| Poologic-LRMCP | 1140 | 1120 | 930 | 840 | 560 |
| Poologic-LRMCPLog | 870 | 560 | |||
| Poologic-Original | 1090 | 1080 | 960 | 870 | 560 |
| Poologic-Sagarin | 1120 | 1070 | 940 | 870 | 570 |
| Poologic- Vegas | 1410 | 1080 | 650 | 890 | 590 |
| Power Rank | 940 | 1110 | 1250 | 1030 | 500 |
| ESPN Bracket Predictor | 1100 | 570 | |||
| BetLab | 940 | 780 | |||
| Jay Bilas | 1130 | 640 | 730 | 850 | |
| Neil Greenberg | 1390 | 410 | 880 | 400 | 420 |
| Misc Experts* | 660 | 900 | 710 | 450 | |
| Dick Vitale | - | 590 | 710 | 400 | |
| 3 Point Percentage | 1210 | 940 | 610 | ||
| ESPN Auto Generated | 650 | 810 | 1250 | 730 | 410 |
| Bing Predicts | 820 | 670 | 720 | ||
| Public Consensus | 770 | 840 | 590 | ||
| Spreadsheet | - | 510 | 1190 | 860 | 600 |
| Pure Guessing/Jessicca | 600 | 1030 | 390 | 1100 | 1180 |
| Chalk | 1000 | 620 |
*- Experts used were: 2017- Howard Megdal, 2019- Seth Greenberg, 2021- Pete Thamel, 2022- Seth Davis
Written on May 1, 2019